Microsoft Marries Mistral In Ongoing AI Spending Spree

Also Apple gives up on the electric car thing and Bitcoin breaks $60k

Author

Adam Hardej
February 28, 2024

Did anyone ever watch the show “Big Love” on HBO? Followed the story of a polygamist mormon family. Great show. Very dramatic. There’s something about Microsoft in the AI markets that made me think of it. Meanwhile, Apple is supposedly going to scrap the whole “Apple Car” thing and Bitcoin just broke the $60K price barrier.

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Microsoft invests in Europe’s Mistral AI to expand beyond OpenAI

“Microsoft said in a statement that it was investing in the 2 billion euro ($2.1 billion), 10-month-old business to help it unlock “new commercial opportunities” and expand to global markets”

Apple cancels work on electric car, source says

“If it is true, Apple will put more focus on GenAI and that should give investors more optimism about the company's efforts and ability to compete at a platform level on AI," said Ben Bajarin, chief executive of consulting firm Creative Strategies.”

Bitcoin Breaks $60K Barrier — On the Verge of Outranking Meta by Market Value

“Bitcoin broke through the critical $60,000 barrier at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, reaching a level last seen in November 2021. The leading cryptocurrency’s market value is on the brink of overtaking Meta, positioning it as the ninth most valuable asset in the world by market capitalization.”

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Letters From The Editor

Misc. (short for miscellaneous)

Bitcoin hits $60K and continues tradfi run

Pretty wild to watch this happen through the noise of the last decade. One of the best thing about Bitcoin is the hardcoded/unrelenting nature of the decentralized system. Through all of this, Bitcoin just keeps on doing what it was coded to do.

I applied to Union Square Ventures in 2018 after selling my first business. In the application I was asked to pitch something that’s undervalued. I was in a crypto phase so I pitched two things: 1. Bitcoin. 2. a shitcoin named Zenon (longer story)

My argument didn’t have anything to do with inflows or news or use cases or anything technical. My point was the Lindy Effect:

The Lindy Effect is a theory that suggests the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age. So, if something has been around for a long time, it's expected to continue to exist for a similarly long time. This concept is often discussed in the context of technology, culture, and even businesses, suggesting that longevity and durability are indicators of continued existence. (definition courtesy of chatGPT)

I think we will continue to see this play out with Bitcoin through ups and downs in the market. The further Bitcoin gets the further it will go - and it has already gone a long way. Also, it’s deflationary.

(i was actually crypto rich at one point but i’m not anymore. i sold btc at $50k to buy my wife’s engagement ring. i held zenon all the way through, lols.)

NVIDIA and Google Poll Results

How do we feel about NVIDIA?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Bullish. Just getting started. (30)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ Bearish. This is the top. (19)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ Not sure. (15)

“I don't think this is actually the top... it will likely take another year or two to top but that wasn't an option and certainly isn't "just getting started" with the baked in expectations.” - Bullish response

I think I agree. AI just starting to ramp up. Still scary graph though and a lot of expectations baked in already.

How do we feel about Google?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Bullish. This is a hiccup. (25)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ Bearish. Beginning of the end. (14)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Not sure. (11)

Bullish won out here, but the comments were more evenly split:

“Have you seen how bad it is internally? At least Ballmer’s Microsoft still had engineers staying around. Google lost its real talent and still continues to hire ex-consultants types unironically.” - Bearish response

“They've lost their way, facing a talent exodus, too tied to an old business model, and lack a culture of innovation” - Bearish response

“YouTube dominates... deal with Reddit will help. I hope the whole Gemini drags on Google's stock price for a better entry point.” - Bullish response

“Yes, Google has a culture problem but that has started to change. Think of Google as what Microsoft was ~10 years ago in the era prior to Satya Nadella. Google still has a LOT of great minds and great tech and TONS of cash to steer the ship back to growth.” - Bullish response

I don’t think Google will go away, but I don’t see them participating in the AI revolution in the same way Microsoft or Facebook will. I agree with the talent exodus issue and the lack of innovation. If you’re holding a basket of big tech they’re obviously still in there, but if you’re trying to be more concentrated I don’t see how you can pick them over other options with similar capabilities and more upside. This applies to talent as well as shareholders.

Talk soon,
Adam

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